No, Prime Minister
Liz Truss is likely to become PM in a few weeks. Her crowd pleasing attack on Nicola Sturgeon this week is exactly what the SNP want from her if she makes it to Number Ten.
A former UK Minister who had close dealings with the SNP Government in Edinburgh used to tell me how he would approach his day at work. “I’d go in thinking to myself, what can I do today that the SNP really won’t want.” His view on that was pretty clear. The nationalist machine in Edinburgh was desperate for another helping of grievance. So he strove every day to ensure that the Whitehall machine covered Scotland well, cooperated with Scottish Government ministers as best as possible, and delivered tangible and practical benefits for people and communities across the country. If, by working together, UK Government Ministers could get their Scottish counterparts to partake in joint photo calls, then all the better: how better to symbolise a functioning and cordial Union than that.
I thought of my Ministerial contact on Monday evening as I watched Liz Truss, the front runner to become the next UK Prime Minister, address a hustings event in Exeter. Asked about how she would tackle the Union, she decided to go on the attack. “I think the best thing to do with Nicola Sturgeon is to ignore her,” she said, to cheers from the watching audience. Emboldened by the response, she went on: “She’s an attention seeker, that’s what she is.”
In direct contradiction to my friend, Mrs Truss had just done precisely what the SNP wanted. Mrs Sturgeon’s deputy John Swinney popped up within minutes to fulminate against the “obnoxious” comments. Nationalist social media – which has been rather quiet of late, troubled by the SNP’s lack of a plan – lit up suddenly, equally enraged. The SNP had its grievance, and by declaring that she intended to ignore the democratically elected First Minister of Scotland, Mrs Truss had just given them a lovely big serving. This will last them all summer.
I don’t know Mrs Truss at all, but her comments on the Union on Monday served to confirm two of my pet theories about politics. Firstly, politicians of whatever colour are at their very worst when speaking to their own party. In the room in Exeter, stuffed to the gunnels with Conservative activists, Mrs Truss saw a ‘clap line’ and eagerly snapped it up. Meanwhile, 600 miles north, the majority of Scots – whether pro-independence or just pro-devolution, collectively slammed their hands into their foreheads. And secondly, politicians who know a little about something are far more dangerous that politicians who know nothing about it. Mrs Truss talks a lot about the five years she spent as a primary school girl growing up in Paisley. Worryingly, she may be suffering from the delusion this gives her some kind of expertise on Scotland, denied to those who did not go to school here at the age of seven. Memo to Mrs Truss: it doesn’t.
Her comment was problematic on several levels. Firstly, it’s impossible to deliver on. Whether she likes it or not, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has to meet the First Minister of Scotland now and then. As Foreign Secretary, Mrs Truss knows full well she has to meet people she doesn’t agree with. For pity’s sake, she met Russia’s Sergei Lavrov not that long ago. As Prime Minister, she will have to do so as well.
Secondly, it was completely self-defeating. Mrs Truss is entirely right to believe that Mrs Sturgeon is an attention seeker. Yet what did she think would happen by mentioning Mrs Sturgeon is such an inflammatory way in front of a public audience? Actively deny Mrs Sturgeon attention? The First Minister has looked a rather forlorn figure in recent weeks. The story has been elsewhere. By attacking her as an attention seeker, Mrs Truss managed to give her the attention she loves. Well done Mrs Truss.
Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly though, even if ignoring the elected leader of the Scottish Government was possible, it is entirely the wrong strategy to adopt. Ever since the start of devolution, successive UK Governments of different colours have pursued the mistaken policy of “devolve and forget”. Faced by the intractable and impenetrable grievances of Scottish politics, they have decided all too often just to imagine it’s not there. I have every sympathy with Prime Ministers who would rather not have to deal with Mrs Sturgeon. Indeed, after resigning from office, David Cameron told his successor Theresa May that working with the SNP leader would be among the hardest tasks she would face. Mrs Truss – or Rishi Sunak, if he wins – need to understand that while it is difficult and irritating, seeking to work constructively with the Scottish Government is the right way forward. Both administrations face very similar challenges: on the NHS back log, on low productivity, on the rapid transition to a low carbon energy policy, to name but three. The best thing Mrs Truss – or Rishi Sunak – can do as Prime Minister is to seek to cooperate with Mrs Sturgeon on those matters, to show how a shared agenda works best, and thereby to prove to sceptical pro-independence Scot that there is a real and living value to the union. Pro-Union supporters are right to ask what is the point when the SNP will only make trouble, and will end up pulling out. But there will be a price to pay for that when Scots see their First Minister refusing the hand of cooperation.
An enormous amount is at stake here. It is not all clear that those Tory party members who, on Monday evening, cheered their support quite understand how damaged the UK would be if Scotland were to up sticks. Mrs Truss’s intervention is also poorly timed: later this autumn, the SNP will launch their latest attempt to divide the country and they are looking for any chance to whip up public opinion. Now is the time for careful and thoughtful statecraft not beer hall soundbites.
Mrs Truss and Mr Sunak should keep their eye on the prize. When deprived of the fuel of the Holyrood-Westminster war, it is becoming increasingly clear that the SNP government is running on empty. The politics of us versus them makes for excruciatingly bad government. And never in the history of devolution have we had a more fundamentalist nationalist government as this one, right now. Nicola Sturgeon is no longer hiding it. Its purpose now is to maximise grievance in the run up to the next General Election. It is short-termist and reckless on spending. The moment is coming, not long after that election, when I expect it will require bailing out. Its moral compass has gone.
Red meat for a home audience is all well and good but the Conservatives need to understand that this will only drive people into the arms of the SNP. Most Scots don’t want another referendum and they don’t want the Union to break up. Indeed, they are open to a positive uplifting case for the Union about how we can all be greater than the sum of our parts. Make it. Anything else is to make the SNP’s day.
This article first appeared in the Scottish Daily Mail, 3rd August 2022
We have to face the fact that for many on the Tory right driving Scotland out of the Union could be a good move. It would increase their majority in the House of Commons by over 50% , weaken if not destroy Labour and provide years of divisive issues about borders, competition for jobs etc. Scotland would be a lot easier to bully than the EU.
There would be a good chance of retaining the nuclear base since Nicola would be likely to accept a deal to lease it as part of the incredibly difficult (for Scotland) withdrawal negotiations.
It has long been observed that the two nationalisms feed off each other and Scottish withdrawal, a kind of second Brexit, would make that more or less permanent. Meanwhile both countries would sink into an impoverished state of resentment and bitterness - ideal ground for the sort of politics we have seen in Scotland and the UK in recent years.
> Indeed, they are open to a positive uplifting case for the Union about how we can all be greater than the sum of our parts.
I agree that making a positive case for the union would be a sensible way for unionists to ensure that it continues. But unionists don't want to do that! Instead they just want to ignore Scotland and tell Scots that they're not letting them leave whether they want to or not.
When Scots realise the union is effectively an abusive relationship where the abuser won't let them leave, then expect Scots public opinion to take a decisive step in the direction of independence.