JUST like the heavily edited Partygate report which has landed Boris Johnson in such an almighty mess this week, so the relationship between the Conservative government in Westminster and the rebellious Scottish party led by leader Douglas Ross looks destined for a kind of redacted future.
Until Scotland Yard reports back and the full details of the Sue Gray report are released, there can be no closure to this; Mr Johnson will simply stagger on. For the Scottish Tories, whose Holyrood group decided last month that they had already seen enough and called for him to go, the shadow over that potentially fateful decision will simply linger on too.
For a party that is supposed to embody Unionism, it does not bode well. As the saying goes, when you come for the King, you better not miss. But, in the short term at least, a majority of Tory MPs are hesitating. It means that those like Mr Ross and the Tory MSPs who have come for him and so far failed to take him out are looking on nervously. What if he rides this out? What if he gets stronger? What then for us? Mr Johnson is nothing if not ruthless in defence of his own position, and if an embattled Downing Street decides to come out fighting, it could get nasty. And this could go wider than just an internal party spat. The fact that the Scottish Tories in Holyrood moved en masse will not gone un-noticed in London. It’s possible to imagine how, in the coming days, loyalists to the Prime Minister may see in the Scottish Tory revolt further evidence that the distant corners of the Kingdom require putting in their place. There is every chance that, as a cold war between London and Edinburgh mounts, it will escalate further. The consequences for the Union may be profound.
Before they do, some cool heads are therefore needed. First and foremost, what is required is for London to see matters through Mr Ross’s end of the telescope. If Mr Johnson really is to turn over a new leaf — something that escapes my own limits of optimism — he should at least seek to understand why Mr Ross and the Scottish party acted as he did. It’s not just his relationship with the Scottish party that would benefit, it is the Union too.
Partly it’s personal. To use a good Scots word, Mr Ross is thrawn. Obstinate, stubborn, linesman material to a tee, he is not somebody who works with shades of grey. As an MP during the prolonged Brexit agony of 2018, he declined to bend to the wind when it came to the compromises required of a government desperate to win a deal to carry the day. Then, when details emerged of Dominic Cummings illegal trips to Barnard Castle at the height of the first lockdown in 2020, Mr Ross quit as junior minister in the Scotland Office. This was the point that Mr Ross set the highest of bars over propriety and standards in office. As details emerged before and after Christmas of Downing Street’s failure to meet those standards over lockdown, Mr Ross found himself essentially boxed in with only two options available: either condemn in the same terms as he had dealt with Mr Cummings or be exposed as a toadying hypocrite.
On the crowded backbenches of Westminster, of course, there’s a third choice. You can hide. What often escapes SW1, however, is that the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, whether Mr Ross, or his predecessor Ruth Davidson — who I used to work for- has no such remedy. It’s not just the scrutiny that the leader faces; as leader of the party in Scotland, a certain of independence of mind isn’t just desirable, it’s necessary. Based on the facts of the case, I happen to think Mr Ross decision to call for Mr Johnson to go was the right one. It’s not just the parties themselves; the manner in which Mr Johnson has evaded straight answers and allowed this mess to grow out of control has now fatally weakened his position. But it is worth also stating that by the time the story grew earlier this month, Mr Ross has precious little choice but to act as he did. It’s no over-statement to say that had he decided to ignore the facts of the case and offer blanket support to Mr Johnson come what may, it could have been career ending for him too. The SNP and Scottish Labour would quite simply have torn him to pieces.
OK, goes the Tory cry, but take one for the team. Stand by your man. If you believe in Britain, the Prime Minister, after all, is the actual boss. But this avoids the particular current circumstances of Scottish politics. The title of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party may indicate three equal elements, but in post-referendum Scotland, it is the third which now counts the most. Confronted with a Prime Minister who has acted carelessly at best and criminally at worst, and whose popularity ratings in Scotland currently rank among the lowest ever recorded for a frontline politician in Scotland, a cold hard calculation has to be made. What is best for the Union? Standing by a leader who four-fifths of Scots think should quit? Or at least showing people in Scotland that there are members of the governing UK party who understand the rage and the anger they feel?
Neither of the choices are ideal, of course. And if Mr Johnson clings on and, even worse for the Scottish Tories, returns to full strength and fights the next general election, then Mr Ross will be in an untenable position — impotent and absurd.
More immediately, the Scottish party faces a major problem this coming May when local elections take place. The SNP is there for the taking: with council tax going up, the Tories should be making hay. But the message from their opponents will come back- when even the Tories don’t back the Tories, why should you? Party figures I speak to fear that any messages around local services will be subsumed within the Johnson soap opera.
Mr Ross will probably end up taking the blame for that. But this does not mean he chose wrongly last month. It will just show that Mr Johnson presented him with a choice of cutting his throat or slashing his wrist. And it is this that should give Downing Street pause for thought.
If Mr Johnson’s misdeeds catch up with him eventually, the very worst that can happen is that the Conservatives will be kicked out of office and will be forced to swap sides in the House of Commons. But, in Scotland, by continuing to put Unionist leaders in Scotland in impossible positions, the careless and arrogant use of power in Number Ten may persuade Scots that the UK is no longer a marriage worth backing.
More immediately, Downing Street should recognise that when it acts with such casual disregard for the privileges of office, it ensures that the SNP government in Edinburgh gets away scot-free. Working together, the UK Government and the Scottish Conservatives have the armoury and the arguments to tear apart the SNP government’s threadbare case for independence. But when the government fails to live up to the standards expected by the British people, that task goes unaccomplished. That is not Mr Ross’s fault; it’s the governments in London. It’s not Mr Ross who needs to make amends for the mess the party finds itself in, it’s them.
ENDS