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Popcorn Politics
I get the sentiment behind the Popcorn emoji on Twitter.
When you see a political opponent going through the ringer and you recall just how unforgiving they were when the boot was on the other foot, there is an entirely natural instinct to enjoy their misfortune, and do so with fellow members of your online tribe.
Jumping on Twitter and tucking into the popcorn as a rival crashes and burns is human nature and anyone who has skin in the game in politics who claims to rise above isn’t telling the truth.
But that little popcorn icon on Twitter - one we’ve seen a lot in pro-UK circles as the SNP’s impregnable hold on Scotland has collapsed these last two weeks – leaves me uncomfortable nonetheless.
Popcorn politics is aimless in the long-run. Sitting back and stuffing your mouth as you scroll through social media is what US political scientist Eiten Hersch has described as “political hobbyism”. It’s an attitude that turns public life into a spectator sport. And just like popcorn, you can gorge on this stuff for hours, but you won’t ever quite feel satiated or satisfied.
I mention this because I think it’s time to recognise that popcorn politics has become a little too ingrained on the pro-UK side of the fence in Scotland. Born of a confidence/arrogance that they and only they represented the collective political will of the Scottish people, the SNP’s A-listers - Salmond, Swinney and Sturgeon - put on the greasepaint every single day. Meanwhile, over that same time period, I’ve found myself lapsing into a mindset which accepts that, thanks to some ancient custom established some time around the turn of the millennium, the Nationalists are the ones who have a right to be on screen and my job is to sit in the audience, booing mostly. I’ve been watching this movie now for so long, it’s hard to remember another way.
The fall out from Tuesday evening’s fiery STV leaders debate has made this a great week for popcorn. But it was hard not to concede that Nicola Sturgeon had a point yesterday when she discussed it during First Minister’s Questions.
“To my opponents, perhaps a word to the wise as well. I cannot grudge them watching the first SNP leadership election in 20 years, because we have had lots of Tory and Labour leaderships to enjoy over those years. However, as long as they are using virtually all of their air time to talk about the SNP because they have nothing positive to offer, fundamentally the problem is not ours; the problem is theirs, because they are destined to stay exactly where they are right now—in opposition.”
The critique that opposition parties have “nothing positive to offer” is wrong but, nevertheless, the bigger point stands: so long as you’re only focussed on your opponent, you won’t ever set the political agenda.
So - as much I’ve thoroughly enjoyed commentating, tweeting and analysing the SNP’s mess as much as anyone over the last few weeks - I think it’s time recognise that if this is to be a transformative moment in Scottish and British politics, then opponents of the SNP like me need to do a bit more than simply dig out another bucket of popcorn and take our seats in Row Z.
We discussed some of this in a podcast with Our Scottish Future’s Jim Gallagher and Molly Nolan this week.
There is, as Jim says in the podcast, an opportunity for a reset. The SNP knows that the independence campaign is, for now, on hold. Sturgeon’s doomed independence strategy reached the end of the road and unless and until the popular mood changes, there is nowhere for the party to go. Prior to the 2026 election, when voters can decide whether or not to dump with the SNP’s services, a big hole opening up for ideas how to nudge the country onwards.
There are a lot of positive ideas that we can now bring to the table. Disagreement on the constitution does not mean that the Scottish and UK Governments can’t work together better in the meantime. Next week we will publish a new paper setting out some practical ideas for collaboration that the new First Minister can pick up on – on hitting net zero, on boosting the economy, on supporting the NHS, and increasing social cooperation.
In two years time we will mark 25 years of devolution. It is time to debate a reboot. The Parliament needs an overhaul (and it is good to see Tory MSP Donald Cameron working on this). Furthermore, given the trend towards centralisation that we’ve seen under the SNP over the last two decades, it is time to examine how devolution extends out of Edinburgh and into our cities, towns and remote regions.
If the NHS really is broken, as most managers and medics now say it is, then the pro-Union side needs to start setting out what kind of reform is needed to sustain our model of health and social care. Kate Forbes’ idea of an independent review into the entire model is a good one. And - picking up on her backing for greater cooperation - we should also look at how the UK Government and devolved administrations might work together to fix it.
The need to settle on a long-term economic plan - one that is guaranteed to outlast a change of government - is urgent. Scotland and Britain’s abysmal rates of productivity and gaping regional inequalities are not sustainable; given the country’s age profile, we are going to run out of money quite soon to pay for all the benefits and freebies to which we’ve become accustomed. Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar’s event in Glasgow today to talk about innovation is a promising sign that Labour is serious about growth, as is the UK Government’s similar emphasis. Where possible, we need to push the UK and Scottish Governments to align strategically so that businesses and investors are confident that policy is permanent. As economist John McLaren has pointed out, what’s needed is a plan - and a plan to stick by it.
There is so much else: in a new age where data is king, we need to examine how the technological revolution can transform public service. As Tony Blair and William Hague have suggested is it time for electronic ID cards and how does that fit within a multi-national union? There is the shamefully ignored crisis in drug misuse. There is our creaking transport network. And the transition to net zero, the roll out of childcare, the question of energy security. I could go on and on - and that is the point. There is a lot, lot more to discuss that whether Humza and Kate are on speaking terms or not.
Memo to self: dump the Popcorn.
The view from Aberfeldy
As regards accurate commentary on the SNP’s nervous breakdown, I am with a Mr Victor Clements of Aberfeldy.
Mr Clements wrote a letter to the Herald newspaper last week. Understandably, the political bubble is focussing on the views of Humza, Kate and Ash. The headlines are all about whichever policy from the Sturgeon era is going to be dumped today, how bad relations are, and all the rest.
This is all very interesting of course. But writing after John Swinney announced that he too would be following Nicola Sturgeon to the exit, Mr Clements put his finger on the big picture.
“It can't give SNP party members much confidence when so many of their big guns either opt out of government or opt out of standing for the leadership, with John Swinney, Angus Robertson and Keith Brown all conspicuous by their reluctance to step forward and no-one at Westminster seemingly interested. In addition, there was a whole swathe of party notables who stood down and out of it at the Scottish elections last year. It doesn’t seem that there is any history-making constitutional vote imminent, otherwise they would all have wanted to have been a part of it.”
The final sentence in particular sums up the significance of the last three weeks. A large chunk of Scotland has taken its lead from Nicola Sturgeon over the last few years: during the pandemic, she didn’t just make the news, she literally read it out. And now she’s going. The message they have taken is that if she’s off, it’s off too. Because if independence really was an inevitability, then surely she’d have stuck about. Mr Swinney’s departure has only solidified that sense; the lack of experience of the three contenders to become the next SNP leader has turned it into hard concrete.
The SNP is about to experience the downside of basing you entire political strategy on the flaky assertions of an all powerful leader. When he or she goes, so does a lot more besides.